RE Market Info June 2, 2020

Mortgage rates under 3%? Not yet but maybe soon

Matthew Gardner’s most recent “Mondays with Matthew” video gives a 10-minute deep dive into what is expected to happen with 30 year mortgage rates from now through 2021.  I encourage you to watch the whole video, but for those who just want the “Cliff’s Notes” version here are his conclusions.

Because historically, 30-year mortgage rates are tied to 10-year bond yields, and those 10-year bond yields have plummeted, it is reasonable to expect mortgage rates to decline over the coming months.  He includes this interesting graph showing the predictions of many industry experts.

forecast of 30-year mortgage rates June 2020

One can see that Windermere Economics’ (Matthew Gardner’s) forecast is right in the middle of the pack, with the average of all sources coming in at 3.12% for the second half of 2020.

This is good, stabilizing news for the housing market.  But what is even more interesting is this next chart that shows the forecast for the next 6 quarters – with interest rates moving even lower.

30 year mortgage rate forecast 2021

As Gardner explains in the full video, these average all types of 30-year mortgages, which means there may be products available that will be UNDER 3.0% in 2021.


If you’re a buyer, your borrowing power is historically as strong as it has ever been, and should remain that way or get even better over the coming year.

If you are a mortgage holder who does not plan to move in the next few years, it likely makes sense to talk to a trusted lender about a refinance.  But it doesn’t look like you have to hurry to miss out.  These rates look likely to hover around the low 3s and possibly high 2s in the coming 18 months.

Here is the June 1 edition of “Monday’s with Matthew” for those of you who enjoy in-depth economic analysis.

As always, I’m here to help you or your friends know what this could mean in your individual situation and it would be a privilege to assist you or them discussing these issues.  I can also refer you to some trusted local lenders to discover if this is a good time for a refinance or new mortgage.

Don Jaques
Windermere Real Estate Whidbey Island