Matthew Gardner’s most recent “Mondays with Matthew” video gives a 10-minute deep dive into what is expected to happen with 30 year mortgage rates from now through 2021. I encourage you to watch the whole video, but for those who just want the “Cliff’s Notes” version here are his conclusions.
Because historically, 30-year mortgage rates are tied to 10-year bond yields, and those 10-year bond yields have plummeted, it is reasonable to expect mortgage rates to decline over the coming months. He includes this interesting graph showing the predictions of many industry experts.
One can see that Windermere Economics’ (Matthew Gardner’s) forecast is right in the middle of the pack, with the average of all sources coming in at 3.12% for the second half of 2020.
This is good, stabilizing news for the housing market. But what is even more interesting is this next chart that shows the forecast for the next 6 quarters – with interest rates moving even lower.
As Gardner explains in the full video, these average all types of 30-year mortgages, which means there may be products available that will be UNDER 3.0% in 2021.
If you’re a buyer, your borrowing power is historically as strong as it has ever been, and should remain that way or get even better over the coming year.
If you are a mortgage holder who does not plan to move in the next few years, it likely makes sense to talk to a trusted lender about a refinance. But it doesn’t look like you have to hurry to miss out. These rates look likely to hover around the low 3s and possibly high 2s in the coming 18 months.
Here is the June 1 edition of “Monday’s with Matthew” for those of you who enjoy in-depth economic analysis.
As always, I’m here to help you or your friends know what this could mean in your individual situation and it would be a privilege to assist you or them discussing these issues. I can also refer you to some trusted local lenders to discover if this is a good time for a refinance or new mortgage.
For those interested in the market trends here on North Whidbey (Oak Harbor WA), I took a look at the statistics for homes priced under $500K on North Whidbey and created this 3 minute video. These stats came out May 1 and refer back to April 2019.
- Mortgage rates went down the last 2 months and are under 4.25% on average.
- Average sales price for these homes has gone down by 5% since last April.
- There is still not a lot of inventory, and homes are taking 40 days to get under contract on average (a small step up from last month).
Here is an update on the Oak Harbor North Whidbey real estate market, based on statistics through the end of February 2019, and published by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
In the video below I walk viewers through the statistics which show a couple of noteworthy market aspects here in Oak Harbor (North Whidbey). First, after a relatively flat previous few months, average sold prices have increased markedly over the past 2 months. Second, the amount of available inventory has jumped up over 3 months for the first time in a few years. This means we are currently in a “balanced” market after being in a “sellers” market for a long time. Along with that, interest rates have decreased over the past few weeks. This is a help to buyers as well.
If you would like a current market analysis of your home anywhere on Whidbey Island or in Anacortes, reach out today for this complementary service.
Compare this report to the November 2018 report.
Looking for a church in Oak Harbor? Check out oakharborchurches.com
Windermere Real Estate/Whidbey Island
This Coupeville waterfront home at 265 Harrington Rd offers the best of both worlds: high bank views with a tram to access your private beach below! Watch the sun rise from your living room or two levels of decks looking across Admiralty Inlet to Camano Island. Home features 3 bedrooms plus a fourth finished room great for guests. Daylight basement includes 1/2 bath and kitchenette with water views as well. Outbuilding can be studio or office. On over 1 acre with trees lining both sides, you’ll love the privacy and serenity here.
Contact me today for a private viewing and trip down to the beach on the tram!
Don Jaques, Jr
Windermere Real Estate
If you were trying to sell your home in the North Whidbey real estate market in late Summer of 2017, there was a difference between how “hot” the market was for homes in the $200-$300K range and those in the $300-$450K range. As the video below explains, homes in the lower price range ($200-$300K) were moving very quickly and sellers were receiving almost 100% of what they listed their homes for.
At the same time, homes in the higher price bracket ($300-$450K) had a noticeable slowdown, with the average for cumulative days on the market (the amount of days between when the home was listed and when a purchase and sale agreement was signed by all parties) doubled in August from around 30 all the way up to 66 days. Along with this slowdown in getting offers signed around, the average price agreed upon dipped from 98% to 96% of the original asking price. For a home originally listed at $400,000, that means on average it would have sold for $384,00 in August.
It is important to note that prices have not dropped in either price range, but there was a noticeable plateau of the prices for homes in the higher price bracket. The reduction in the percentage of the original asking price actually received by sellers in the higher price bracket (from 98% to 96%) reflects the optimism by sellers that prices would continue increasing at the rates they had in May, June, and July. They priced their homes accordingly, but buyers were hesitant to purchase at those prices, bringing in offers that were a lower percentage of the asking price.
Buyers continue to benefit from historically low interest rates, so it remains a good time to buy as well as a good time to sell in North Whidbey Real Estate.